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Prediction for CME (2024-09-22T21:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-09-22T21:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33529/-1
CME Note: CME first seen in the SW by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2024-09-22T21:36Z. The source of this event is an M3.7 flare and filament eruption from S23E65 beginning at 2024-09-22T21:12Z. This flare is seen clearly in SDO AIA 94 and 131, and the filament material is seen best in SDO AIA 304. Field line opening is also visible in SDO AIA 171, 193, and GOES SUVI 284 along with post eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 94 and 131. This filament appears to deflect towards the SW as it progresses as seen in GOES SUVI 304. A faint EUV wave seen in SDO AIA 193 also appears to expand more to the west.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-09-24T18:55Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/33533/1
Model Inputs:
2024-09-22T21:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-24.0, Lat.=-18.0, Speed=1381.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-09-23T00:04Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-09-24T18:55Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =28.5 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.4
(kp)90=6
(kp)180=8

Other Location(s) Impact:
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-09-24T14:29Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-09-25T02:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240923_000400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240923_000400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240923_000400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240923_000400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240923_000400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240923_000400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240923_000400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240923_000400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240923_000400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240923_000400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240923_000400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240923_000400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240923_000400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240923_000400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 31.08 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-09-23T11:50Z

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